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ASPO International

IEA:Six New Saudi-Arabias Required: The World Energy Outlook 2008 (WEO2008) was released last week and it contains updated studies and forecast from the International Energy Agency (IEA). One of their conclusions is that six new Saudi-Arabias is required until 2030, corresponding to 64 million barrels per day, in order to meet demand and counter decline. Also they see increasing average decline rates of world oil production, mostly due to a switch to smaller fields as the old giants mature. This report signalize that IEA begin to see more and more challenges with future oil supply. Some of the key graphs from WEO2008 can be found here: http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/key_graphs_08/WEO_2008_Key_Graphs.pdf Comments and discussions related to WEO2008 can be found here: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4763
TOTAL sees nuclear era after peak oil: French oil and gas giant Total is targeting nuclear energy to drive growth long after oil and gas output peak, a top executive said on Monday. "In the future, energy demand will be constrained by tight supply," Arnaud Chaperon, Total's senior vice president for electricity and new energies, said in a presentation to a nuclear energy conference in Qatar. "Oil and gas will still play a big role in the energy balance. But in the electrification of the world economy, nuclear will play a major role, together with the development of solar and other renewables ... That is why Total is very interested in developing nuclear and renewables." Read more: Reuters
SHELL vice president: Peak Gas could come 'earlier than we think': For the gas industry, peak gas output could come sooner than expected, "maybe not too different from peak oil," Shell executive vice president John Mills told delegates at the ADIPEC conference in Abu Dhabi on 5 November 2008. "Globally, what people have woken up to is that there is a prospect for the gas industry that its supply-demand crunch could come earlier than anticipated," he said. "The Middle East will still be increasing its gas exports right through that [peak in global gas supply], but the picture in North America and Europe will be quite different," he said. Chris Ball of Occidental said "we are very optimistic that there are large reserves of gas out there, which if customers will accept the price, [can be developed]. Industry can be creative and innovative [to find solutions] but it will take money." ADNOC's gas processing manager Ismail Al Ramahi said that 40% of global gas reserves were in the Middle East, but he said the distribution of the available gas to the market was concentrated in a few countries. read more
Dr Euan Mearns on the Global Energy Crisis: Dr Euan Mearns, editor of the Oil Drum, gave a presentation at the Royal Society of Chemists earlier this year. He discussed the global energy crisis and its role in for the pending collapse of global economy along with the need for energy efficiency Now his speech is available for further discussions the Oil Drum. Read more: The Oil Drum
UK will face peak oil crisis within five years, new industry report warns: The risk to the UK from falling oil production in coming years is greater than the threat posed by terrorism, according to an industry taskforce report published today. The report, from Peak Oil Task Force, warns that the problem of declining availability of oil will hit the UK earlier than generally expected - possibly within the next five years and as early as 2011. The main conclusions of the Taskforce are: 1. The effects of peak oil will be felt in the next five years - during the next term of government 2. The risks to UK society from peak oil are far greater than those that tend to occupy the Government's risk-thinking, including terrorism 3. The UK Government needs to re-prioritise peak oil - as the impacts are more likely to arrive first -- before climate change Read more: The Guardian Download the report from: Peak Oil Task Force

CrisisEnergetica.org

Destacado: G20 = Growing To Zero
Lukoil negocia la compra de un 30% de Repsol
El consumidor pagará el costo de la piratería marítima
Las familias apagan la luz: el consumo de electricidad empieza a caer por culpa de la crisis
La Vacía Declaración del G-20 Augura Otra Crisis Peor

Ni nuclear ni otras

Sistema eléctrico efectivo, en términos de sostenibilidad: Un verdadero honor, oigan. Resulta que se va la luz en toda la isla de Menorca, decenas de miles de personas se quedan sin el servicio eléctrico durante dos horas, y Gesa Endesa sólo recibe 17 reclamaciones, según una noticia de UH Menorca (arriba). Sin creer que mis escritos periódicos en el mismo diario, de tirada insular, pueden haber influido en sosegar la habitual tendencia de todo usuario eléctrico de entender tal bien como un derecho asignado por las divinidades, por lo menos constato que los resultados no han sido contrarios a los pretendidos y que la masa no se ha enardecido todavía más. Me congratulo.Más honores. En un mismo artículo, otro (en la misma imagen, abajo), del mentado periódico se habla de lo que dijo Luis Atienza, el presidente de Red Eléctrica de España SA, y de lo que dice Gabriel Tobar (o sea, yo), miembro de AEREN. Es un pasito.Pero más aún. Comenta la noticia: «Atienza explicó que, de haber estado conectada con la Península, "el sistema eléctrico hubiera aguantado en pie con algunos apagones locales, aunque no se puede afirmar con rotundidad"». Y en eso insistía yo hasta ahora: hubiera aguantado, o no. Se habría evitado el apagón; o no. Me vuelvo a congratular.Aunque tengo una leve queja. Pequeñita, no se me mosquee nadie. Es que pone que «Gabriel Tobar sostiene que un sistema de red eléctrica insular sería más efectivo, en términos de sostenibilidad». Y yo no me comprendo, ahí la queja.Clic aquí para seguir leyendo...Quiero decir, que no comprendo «será más efectivo, en términos de sostenibilidad». Vamos, que eso no lo debo de haber dicho yo, porque --quien me conozca lo sabrá-- yo nunca digo «efectivo en términos de sosteniblidad». De hecho, procuro evitar los vocablos sostenible y sostenibilidad porque ahora mismo están vacíos de contenido, se usan demasiado, ya no significan nada. Cuando me refiero a que algo debe perdurar para siempre, suelo usar «tal cosa debería ser sustentable». Y suelo añadir «en el tiempo». Sinceramente, no sabría definir qué es un «sistema eléctrico sostenible», como no comprendo --y me he quejado en decenas de hilos de esos términos-- la movilidad sostenible aplicada a la circulación de vehículos privados, las viviendas sostenibles --que evidentemente se caen si no se sostienen--, el turismo sostenible --que implicaría que existen aviones reactores sostenibles, fuera que lo que fuera tal cosa--, el crecimiento sostenible --oximoronazo del copón bendito--….Y se me cita: «La población mide la energía consumida en euros, pero no sabe qué cantidad de energía consume». Eso sí lo he dicho yo. Mil veces. Me reafirmo.Y continúa la noticia: «Según Tobar, con un sistema eléctrico insular, la demanda energética» (supongo que yo diría eléctrica, siempre incido en no confundir energía y electricidad) «debería adaptarse a las posibilidades de la red, contribuyendo a la creación de un desarrollo verdaderamente sostenible». Y ya estamos de nuevo. Yo no suelo decir sostenible, menos dos veces por párrafo. A quien no me conozca le parecerá esto una tontería, pero a quien sí, comprenderá la importancia del asunto. Y menos «desarrollo sostenible», que ya sabemos que casi todos confunden con crecimiento sostenible, y menos mezclando desarrollo con hiperestabilidad de una red eléctrica que en Menorca, comparada al resto del planeta, está muy por encima de la media de dimensiones y potencia, también de estabilidad. Rogaría se me citara más literalmente si se me cita.Pero bueno, tanto da. ¿Qué quería decir con lo que conté a la periodista?Creo que un sistema eléctrico puramente insular, que contuviera solamente a Menorca, o como está hoy, una sola red en las Islas Gimnesias (Mallorca-Menorca), serviría perfectamente para el cometido de cubrir los servicios en los que realmente son necesarios los niveles de alta electrificación de manera constante y sin fallo: servicios médicos (hospitales y centros de salud), de higiene (redes de agua y alcantarillado), de seguridad (bomberos, policía), centros educacionales, etc; el resto de usuarios deberían adaptarse a las posibilidades de generación, no al revés adaptando la generación al capricho de los usuarios.Creo que un sistema eléctrico puramente insular podría servir para que los ciudadanos aprendan a comprender lo que usan, y puedan tener la posibilidad de incidir en el buen uso del mismo. Ya es difícil que toda la gente comprenda algo tan simple como las generalidades de nuestro sistema eléctrico, peor será si se trata de que comprendan la procedencia de su electricidad cuando ésta proviene de una red internacional europea, con miles de puntos de generación en lugar de una docena como es el caso del sistema eléctrico gimnesio.Ahora puede un menorquín preocupado por las políticas que inciden en su entorno, pedir que no se use carbón, o gas natural, y en cambio que se primen sistemas de generación menos agresivos y un menor consumo, pero si estamos conectados a España y a su vez a Francia y ésta a Alemania, Suiza e Italia, etc., aquel al que hay que pedir que Francia no evacue por las noches nuclear a España, queda más lejos: perdemos soberanía, en este caso energética.Sí, quiero que el menorquín pueda desarrollarse: como ser vivo inteligente, como humano --no como ser crecientemente consumista y nada más--, de manera perdurable, sustentable en el tiempo, y para ello creo que necesitará de un mínimo de electricidad. Pero precisamente para que el día de mañana se pueda seguir disfrutando de lo que teníamos hace, por ejemplo, 30 años --electricidad de manera más o menos fiable y para todos aunque sea un poco--, es por lo que siento la necesidad de que mantengamos ese sistema pequeño y cada vez más independiente, no menos. Si a eso le llaman «sistema eléctrico efectivo, en términos de sostenibilidad», bienvenido sea el término.
Tercermundista es otra cosa: El 15 de agosto de 2003 se produjo en EEUU y Canadá un apagón que dejó a 50 millones de personas sin electricidad, a algunos de ellos por varios días. El mismo año y posteriores han habido en California cortes frecuentes de suministro a varios millones de usuarios.El 4 de noviembre de 2006 un cable partido en la Baja Sajonia, al Norte de Alemania, dejó a parte de Europa a oscuras: millones de personas desde Croacia hasta Francia, y desde Holanda hasta Portugal, sufrieron un apagón por un cable caído a miles de kilómetros de sus hogares. Hasta en Arcos de la Frontera, en Cádiz, sufrieron las consecuencias al saltar allí una central y desestabilizar la red.En España, como en cualquier otro lugar, cuando llegan los rigores del verano o del invierno, ya sean inclemencias meteorológicas o puntuales estertores consumistas, alguna que otra red siempre cae y sus usuarios dejan de disfrutar electricidad por un rato, casi siempre unas pocas horas a lo sumo. Un día especialmente frío y tormentoso de un invierno cualquiera, pueden encontrarse en Internet noticias de multitud de esos pequeños apagones a lo largo de la geografía española.Las conclusiones obvias son dos.La primera, disponer de conexión con sistemas eléctricos cada vez mayores no garantiza en absoluto una disponibilidad total: las averías suceden; no existe tecnología humana que no sufra de averías. Las mejores naves espaciales de la NASA pueden fallar y fallan, los mejores aparatos médicos pueden fallar y fallan, los mejores submarinos rusos pueden fallar y fallan, un avión civil puede fallar y falla. Cualquier sistema eléctrico puede fallar y falla; y fallará. No se puede demandar un sistema eléctrico, o cualquier otra cosa, infalible. Mejor acostumbrémonos a ser humanos, falibles. Lo contrario suena a pretender ser dioses, infalibles, que probablemente no somos.La segunda conclusión, a un sistema eléctrico que falla una hora de cada 2.000 en funcionamiento, no se le puede llamar tercermundista; como no se podría llamar tercermundista un coche que fallara una hora cada 2.000 horas de recorrido, que serían 200.000 kilómetros sin fallar ni una vez. Resultaría, si no, según las noticias anteriores, que EEUU y Canadá son tercermundistas, que California (economía en las top-ten si fuera un país), es tercermundista, y que toda Europa también lo es, visto que sufren apagones puntuales. Todo el planeta sería tercemundista.Resultaría al final que disponer de ascensores en los que quedarse atrapados, disponer de porteros electrónicos que nos bloqueen la entrada a casa, de garajes con puertas con mando a distancia que nos impidan recoger a los niños del colegio al no poder sacar el coche del sótano, disponer de ambulancias con GPS a las que luego no se les puede seguir la pista desde el PC de la central, de semáforos en las calles que no regulen el colapso permanente, de industrias cuya mano de obra no era más que electricidad que movía máquinas, de comercios y servicios públicos que no son nada si no se conectan a un enchufe, disponer de chalets llenos de aparatos eléctricos caros que vigilar con una alarma que a la postre no puede avisar, disponer de toda esa sociedad ultratecnificada que nos rodea, y que nos proporciona la electricidad, es de tercermundista por el simple hecho de que a veces falle el suministro eléctrico. Yo diría que no.
Rutas marítimas imposibles: «Se ha construido atendiendo a las últimas regulaciones navales y bajo las especificaciones de Vela dirigidas al respeto por el medio ambiente, la seguridad y la confiabilidad, para asegurar el transporte del crudo saudí de Aramco a sus clientes».Así proclama en su web el armador Vela las bondades del Sirius Star, un superpetrolero con capacidad de 2 millones de barriles, construido por encargo de la petrolera estatal saudí Aramco en los astilleros de Daewoo en Corea del Sur, y botado el pasado marzo.El Sirius Star es un buque del tamaño de varios portaviones, que en uno de sus primeros viajes «seguros y confiables» hacia EEUU ha sido asaltado por piratas a casi 1.000 kilómetros de las costas keniatas (según la prensa, somalíes según el armador).La seguridad y la confiabilidad quedan más que en entredicho.No es el caso único, si bien sí el mayor barco del que se tiene constancia que haya sido jamás asaltado por piratas: en las costas de Nigeria se suceden los episodios con mercantes de todo tipo.La marina mercante se plantea dar rodeos impresionantes, mientras aquí en Europa lo que más nos preocupa es que no llegue la Nintendo a tiempo.
G20 = Growing To Zero: El G-20 era un grupo de 19 que reunía el 90% del PIB mundial (como lo leen), el 80% del comercio internacional y dos tercios de la población mundial. Con la asistencia de España y Holanda...Se reúnen de vez en cuando y emiten recomendaciones a través de acuerdos. He entresacado unas frases cuanto menos curiosas del penúltimo que firmaron:ACUERDO G-20 PARA EL CRECIMIENTO SOSTENIDO21-noviembre-2004Estabilidad, Competencia y Fortalecimiento: movilizando las fuerzas económicas para un crecimiento a largo plazo satisfactorio.[De la Introducción]Nosotros, los Ministros de Finanzas y los Gobernadores de los Bancos Centrales del G-20, tenemos una meta común: promover el empleo, el bienestar y el desarrollo en nuestros países. Estamos convencidos de que el crecimiento económico sostenido es necesario, tanto a nivel nacional como global, para alcanzar esta meta. […] Hemos discutido por ello los requerimientos para un crecimiento de larga duración sobre la base de nuestra propia experiencia y creencia en que la política doméstica necesita dirigirse hacia tres tareas: establecer y mantener una estabilidad financiera y monetaria; aumentar la competencia doméstica e internacional; y fortalecer la participación de la gente. […] La transparencia y responsabilidad dentro de un marco internacional de códigos y estándares consensuado, resulta clave para asegurar crecimiento económico sostenido y estabilidad a nivel global.Clic aquí para seguir leyendo...[Y entre las medidas]La estabilidad de precios es indispensable para el crecimiento económico sostenible dado que alienta la inversión y el ahorro.La liberalización de capitales conlleva eficiencias y beneficios esenciales para el crecimiento económico.…la competitividad es el motor del crecimiento económico.La liberalización del comercio internacional es un instrumento esencial para promover el crecimiento, al canalizar los recursos hacia sus usos más productivos.Y ahora han vuelto a firmar otro acuerdo, del que extraigo otros extraños enunciados:DECLARACION DE LA CUMBRE SOBRE LOS MERCADOS FINANCIEROS Y LA ECONOMIA MUNDIAL15 de noviembre de 2008[De la Introducción]Nosotros, los dirigentes del Grupo de los Veinte (...) estamos decididos a reforzar nuestra cooperación y a trabajar en común para restaurar el crecimiento económico en el mundo y para llevar a cabo las reformas necesarias en los sistemas financieros mundiales.Nuestro trabajo se va a guiar por una confianza compartida en que los principios del (bla, bla, bla) que resultan esenciales para el crecimiento económico, el empleo y la reducción de la pobreza.[Y entre las medidas]...es necesario hacer más para estabilizar los mercados financieros y sostener el crecimiento económico.Hemos estado de acuerdo en que hace falta una respuesta política en todos los órdenes [...] que restablezca el crecimiento, evite consecuencias indirectas negativas para el gasto público...Estos principios son esenciales para el crecimiento económico y laprosperidad [...] deberemos, sin embargo, evitar un exceso de regulación que podría obstaculizar el crecimiento económico...Debemos [...]retomar los flujos de capital privado que resultan fundamentales para el desarrollo y el crecimiento sostenible... Y ahora que ya hemos visto que están convencidos en su creencia de la posibilidad de un crecimiento sostenido en el tiempo, a largo plazo, duradero, sostenible y todo eso, veamos otras frases, del actual acuerdo, que pudiendo parecer que se contradicen sus significados, no lo hacen. El por qué no lo hacen pareciéndolo es algo que deberá preguntársele a ellos: yo no alcanzo.«Hemos mantenido una primera reunión en Washington en la fecha del 15 de noviembre de 2008, en medio de graves problemas que afectan a la economía mundial y a los mercados financieros.» Y me pregunto ¿No tendrá nada que ver su anterior acuerdo de crecimiento infinito? Pues no parece, porque están «decididos a reforzar nuestra cooperación y a trabajar en común para restaurar el crecimiento económico». Quieren restaurar lo que nos llevó a este punto. ¡Si ellos mismos lo reconocen! Vean: «Entre otros importantes factores subyacentes a la situación actual figuran unas políticas macroeconómicas incoherentes e insuficientemente coordinadas y unas reformas estructurales inadecuadas que han llevado a unos resultados macroeconómicos insostenibles a escala global. Estas circunstancias, en su conjunto, han tenido su parte de responsabilidad en los excesos y, en último término, han dado como resultado una grave alteración del mercado.»Ante el exceso, un poquito de exceso más no vendrá mal, vienen a decir. Y eso lo van a hacer interviniendo mientras promueven un mercado más libre. Las dos cosas a la vez, por imposible que parezca:Interviniendo:Mantener nuestros esfuerzos con todo vigor y tomar las medidas adicionales que sean necesarias para estabilizar el sistema financiero.Reconocer la importancia de la contribución de la política monetaria.Recurrir en la medida apropiada a medidas fiscales...Ayudar a las economías emergentes y en vías de desarrollo a que tengan acceso a financiación (...) facilitándoles liquidez directa y apoyo programado. Subrayamos el papel importante que corresponde al Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI)...Animar al Banco Mundial y a los demás bancos de desarrollo multilateral (BDMs) a emplear a fondo toda su capacidad...Y liberalizando a la vez:Reconocemos que estas reformas únicamente tendrán el éxito si están firmemente fundamentadas sobre un firme compromiso con los principios del libre mercado (...) el respeto por la propiedad privada (...) y las inversiones libres en los mercados competitivos.Yo no me aclaro. ¿Ustedes sí?
¿Gobernar con desconocimiento de causa?: Nos informa la prensa de que Francesc Antich, actual presidente del Govern Balear, mantendrá próximos contactos con las empresas REE y Enagás «para analizar la situación del sistema energético de la comunidad autónoma, después del apagón del pasado jueves que dejó sin suministro eléctrico a toda Mallorca y Menorca durante varias horas», según Europa Press. A eso se le llama acordarse de la lluvia cuando truena.Eso sí, que se reúnan, para eso están los dirigentes. Aunque lo de que «mostró su interés en que las reuniones con el gestor español del sector eléctrico y con la compañía gasista le permitan poder disponer una más información acerca de los recursos energéticos del archipiélago», siempre según la misma noticia, resulta curioso. ¿Acaso no dispone ya de toda la información sobre los recursos energéticos del archipiélago? ¡Si son públicos! Por ejemplo, aquí los tenemos recopilados todos, toditos (menos cuánto vienen produciendo la solar y la eólica más allá de por años). Pues va a ser que no, que no los tienen ellos.Clic aquí para seguir leyendo...No se sorprendan, a mí ya me avisaron fuentes solventes (caray, nunca creí que dijera fuentes solventes proponiéndolas como fuentes solventes, en fin…): no, no están al día; de hecho los máximos dirigentes de algunos asuntos no saben nada de algunos de esos asuntos, es decir que son completamente legos en la materia. Y así nos va.La noticia de EP continúa dando a conocer que «se analizará en qué estado se encuentra la construcción del cable eléctrico y el futuro gaseoducto, "dos nuevas infraestructuras que servirán para reforzar el suministro energético en Baleares y evitar que se vuelvan a repetir episodios como el ocurrido hace unos días"». ¿Ven? No están al día. Yo sí sé por dónde va la construcción del gaseoducto: están en ello. ¿Qué más interesa saber? ¿Cuántos metros de tubo llevan pasados y cuántos les queda? ¿Y qué más da? ¿Ése es el extremo más interesante y urgente del sistema energético que nos sostiene? Me temo que no. El cable eléctrico lo mismo. Además esas dos infraestructuras son continuistas, siguen siendo parte de la misma táctica de gigantismo de siempre: más grande es mejor. Cuando, en realidad, ahora más grande ya es peor, como vengo discutiendo siempre.Bueno, no, discutir es entre dos, yo grito al vacío aquello de «el emperador está en pelota picada». Luego será quizás mi atribulada imaginación, no puedo prometer que no, pero me dio por ahí, por la prudencia, no puedo evitarlo, sabrán disculparme.Ya tenemos una buena torre de Babel, más pisos no, por favor, que está esto que se cae. Además ya firmó hace unos años el presidente del Consell Insular Cristobal Triay una renuncia explícita a la llegada de gaseoductos, en el Plan de Desarrollo Sostenible de Menorca (en la biblioteca de Ciutadella hay un ejemplar, puede consultarse) ¿De qué sirve que firmemos planes si luego los usamos de papel higiénico?Y no serán ni el gas natural ni una conexión eléctrica con la península, lo que evitará apagones puntuales. ¿Tan difícil es comprender que la perfección en estas lides no existe, y que es más caro evitarlo cuanto más nos acercamos al último minuto de apagón a evitar? Yo llevo contadas unas 4 o 5 horas de apagón en todo un año (donde yo he estado en cada momento). Teniendo en cuenta que un año tiene casi 9.000 horas, sale a una hora de apagón por cada 2.000 de servicio. Yo no tengo en mi casa un microondas de recambio, y una nevera de recambio, y un calentador, una tele, y dos teléfonos de recambio para cuando se me estropea alguno, y se me estropean mucho más que uno cada 2.000 días: cuando se estropean, me aguanto un día sin eso; es mucho más barato y cómodo.¿Cada cuánto nos debemos dar permiso para que falle el sistema eléctrico, partiendo de que es imposible que no ocurra nunca? ¿1 hora de cada cien mil horas, un minuto de cada diez millones de horas? Sería como construir todas las casas del planeta para que soportaran terremotos intensos, aun donde no hay nunca terremotos: demasiado caro, inamortizable.El Sr. Antich debería mantenerse informado, pero no ahora que tronó, sino habitualmente, y para eso no le debería hacer falta más que acudir a su Consellería de Comerç, Indústria i Energia, la cual me temo que pueda estar en el mismo nivel de información: fuentes solventes me dijeron que… Bah, tanto da, estaríamos en las mismas.

Transition Culture

Responding to Greer’s Thoughts on ‘Premature Triumphalism’: It was good to read John Michael Greer’s recent post about the Transition movement, entitled Premature Triumphalism, because as a long admirer of Greer’s work, I was looking forward to hearing his take on the subject. His piece is based on hearing a talk on Transition at the recent Community Solutions conference, and he raises some important points, most of which I have to say I agree with entirely and find his analysis very insightful. I want to start my response to his piece by drawing your (and his) attention to what I think is the most important thing on the Transition Network’s website, the Cheerful Disclaimer. The Cheerful Disclaimer! Just in case you were under the impression that Transition is a process defined by people who have all the answers, you need to be aware of a key fact. We truly don’t know if this will work. Transition is a social experiment on a massive scale. What we are convinced of is this: * if we wait for the governments, it’ll be too little, too late * if we act as individuals, it’ll be too little * but if we act as communities, it might just be enough, just in time. Everything that you read on this site is the result of real work undertaken in the real world with community engagement at its heart. There’s not an ivory tower in sight, no professors in musty oak-panelled studies churning out erudite papers, no slavish adherence to a model carved in stone. This site, just like the transition model, is brought to you by people who are actively engaged in transition in a community. People who are learning by doing - and learning all the time. People who understand that we can’t sit back and wait for someone else to do the work. People like you, perhaps… These are times in which many many people feel bewildered, lost and really rather scared. Anything that appears to offer a successful way through can generate a wide range of responses. We deal with this all the time at the Transition Network. For many people, coming across Transition, especially for those that have undergone their peak oil ‘dark night of the soul’, discovering Transition can be like falling in love. In the first throes of a love affair, everything about our new partner is wonderful. They are the most beautiful, funny, gorgeous, sexy, witty person we have ever met. Over time of course, things become less heady, and although things calm down and become more realistic, it doesn’t mean that we no longer care for them or that that person isn’t right for us. Likewise with Transition, many people encounter the model, the tools, the Network, and enter what we might call ‘Super Exuberance Mode’, where they feel they have found the One Thing That Will Save Us. Over time, this then calms down, and they become more realistic and grounded, but although that early stage is a powerful experience for many, it also has its inherent dangers. What is happening in the US now is that Transition is starting to spread in various places, helped by the publication of Transition Handbook there, the formation of Transition US, set up to support and enable its spread, and by some early adopters who are generating some good media coverage. What is vital though, as Greer observes, is that it remains grounded, and expectations aren’t created that are entirely unrealistic. What actually is this Transition thing? It is a Purpose and a set of principles, a 12 Step model people use, a Network of people around the world, many practical projects some of which have worked and some of which haven’t, and the Cheerful Disclaimer. That’s it. Beyond that, it is an invitation to get involved, to input and to help shape this approach. I often liken Transition to being a huge, and vitally important social research project. Those tools and principles continually evolve through a constant series of iterations. It started with the Kinsale Energy Descent Plan which went around the world, generating a lot of enthusiasm as well some constructive feedback. That then shaped the way Transition Town Totnes happened in its early stages, as well as the experience of some of the early adopters like Lewes, Penwith and Stroud. The feedback from that led into the writing of the Transition Primer, the free pdf. guide to starting an initiative. That is a continually revised guide, now in its 26th version. The feedback from the places doing trying out the suggestions in the Primer led to the writing of the Transition Handbook. The feedback from the Handbook is now being collated in the collaborative rewriting of the Handbook, and also in the Transition Movie, out next Spring, which is being filmed by those out there doing it. This way of working is, for me, the Cheerful Disclaimer in practice. We don’t know how to do this, but the more of us that are doing it, the better and clearer idea we will get. Although at Transition Network we have some suggested templates for presentations, we don’t dictate what people will use to give talks about Transition. They speak from their experience, their passion, their enthusiasm. As a result, some people will be more in Super Exuberance Mode than others. We discussed today trying to ensure that anyone giving a talk about Transition include the Cheerful Disclaimer somewhere in that. Hopefully people will take that on. There is, however, a fine line, a careful balance, between communicating inspiration and enthusiasm, and generating the kind of headshaking and ‘blistering comments’ Greer picked up at the back of the hall. Whenever I speak about Transition, I stress that we don’t know if this will work, that it is a collaborative adventure, an ongoing, long term experiment. Actually, a lot of people come up afterwards and say that they felt that was the most inspiring aspect of the talk. ‘Premature triumphalism’ should be avoided at all costs, and certainly we emphasise that again and again through the Transition Training, and through all the output from the Network. I have no idea, never having been there, of the US context for all this. There is fascinating work going on, translating Transition into a range of cultural contexts. We now have full translations of the Primer in Dutch and Japanese, and partial translations into French, German, Spanish, Italian and Hungarian, translated by the initiating groups in those countries themselves. The Handbook is now published in German and shortly in Italian. Yet beyond the language issues, there are the cultural issues of how this model adapts. The best people to work out how Transition works in the myriad of communities on a wide range of scales across the US are the inhabitants of those communities themselves. This is the model that is working in other places, New Zealand being an especially good example of this. It may be that being more effusive about it works better there (had Obama, rather than saying ‘yes we can’, said ‘well we might be able to, I have no idea, but I get a sense that we probably could if we work on this together and then kinda share our experiences’ he may not have got so far). It feels vital to me that Transition doesn’t repeat some of the things that the permaculture movement has got wrong. As my recent post about chicken greenhouses showed, one of the things permaculture has been really poor at (in my opinion) is on researching itself. Enthusiastic teachers went around the world teaching tools and techniques, yet with no-one following up behind studying if these things actually worked. I am trying to get hold of an electronic copy of a brilliant analysis of the Australian Permaculture movement by Russ Grayson which holds many important lessons for Transition, which I will post here when I do. Being honest and open about what works and what doesn’t is vital. With regards to Greer’s other point, that there is no point visioning the future because we have no idea what it will be like, I disagree. Of course we don’t know for sure, but the point is that we need to start planning for life beyond oil now, indeed Bob Hirsch might argue (if he wasn’t warning us all to stop talking about peak oil in case we depress the chances of the revival of economic growth) that we should have started this planning 20 years ago. In doing that planning, it strikes me that that needs to be based on realistic assumptions about the future, rather than the assumed line rising from left to right on the graphs of most business and development planners (more houses, cars, jobs, growth, energy). With my background in permaculture design, I approach the transitioning of my town, the cutting of carbon emissions and the building of resilience, in the same way I would approach a garden design. First there is an observation phase, a taking stock, of assessing what the resources are that we have to work with. Then there is an evaluation of that, which leads into the design stage. Why these stages matter is that then when we come to action, to implemenation, we know we are directing our energies in the most productive way. We know we are applying our limited energy and resources in the way that has the most leverage. Starting with a vision ensures that we know where we are aiming for, that the first steps we take are the most skillful and the most appropriate, rather than dashing around doing things that in the moment feel right, yet which lack any strategic underpinning. No-one in Transition would ever say that the Energy Descent Plan they produce is the hard and fast plan for the next 20 years. In the same way that in permaculture design, the implementation of our plan is followed by an ongoing process of ‘tweaking’, of continual revision, so that the plan remains contemporary and relevant, our EDAPs are always work-in-progress. In the process of creating the Totnes Energy Descent Plan, it is striking that although the Plan is based on a vision of the town in 20 years, the majority of practical actions tend to cluster in the first 5 years. What is key, to return to Greer’s point, is that EDAPs look at possibilities, rather than probabilities. It is a key difference, and one that will be stressed in the forthcoming ‘Transition Timeline’ report, coming soon from Transition Network. Greer concludes his piece by saying “all this is welcome, but I'm still reminded of the old shopman's rule that you don't actually know how to use a tool until you are ready to name at least three ways it can be abused and at least three situations where it's the wrong tool for the job”. I think at this stage, as I hope I have set out, that across the Transition network, we can now name many more than three for both of these. The ethic of collaborative exploration and openness to failure embodied in the Transition model means that this is a powerful, exhilarating and timely approach, not because it is fully formed, inherently wonderful and guaranteed to suceed, but precisely because it wears its heart on its sleeve, is honest about what works and what it doesn’t, and because it thrives on the journey of figuring out what successful pathways down the energy mountain will look like in practice. For me, the not knowing is what makes this all fun, and it is the potential of the cultural, social and economic renaissance that could arise from our getting this right that propels me out of bed every morning.
Transition Training Goes on Tour, Blog #1: So yesterday we waved Naresh Giangrande off from Totnes on the first leg of the Transition Training Tour, with Sophy Banks set to head off to join him next week. The next four months are a very ambitious attempt to meet some of the demand for training arising around the world and to create a pool of trainers that can support it. They will be blogging regularly here at Transition Culture, and here is their first post by way of setting the scene. Its only a year since we ran the first Training for Transition in Totnes in the front room of the office. Now we are embarking on our most ambitious project yet, to bring the training to other parts of the world. Sophy and I are travelling for the next four months giving talks, delivering trainings, meeting with people doing amazing things, and training others to deliver this training in the USA, Canada, New Zealand, Australia, Japan, and probably China. And no we aren't cycling or rowing or going by airship (sorry George Monbiot). We thought long and hard about the pros and cons and what swung us behind the idea was that many were coming from all over the world to do the training it made sense to us to have two of us travel rather than hundreds coming to the UK. I couldn't swear that January in New Zealand didn't enter at all into our thinking. It was and is a hard decision as many of us in transition know, to live in the existing paradigm or live by your principles. How do the two meet and how to live with integrity? The enthusiastic response from all over the world has added to our conviction that we are doing the right thing. The training is a mix of the practical, theoretical, and the experiential. What confronted us when we sat down to design this two day fundamentals workshop in transition was how to you train someone to do something when you don't know what it is your are actually training people to do. Training someone to be a doctor or a mechanic or an accountant, we know what each of these professions do there are clear competencies that they would have to know to be good at their profession. However with Transition, the field is so wide, just about anything can be included, and no one knows what a Transitioned Town looks like because nowhere has yet transitioned from an advanced industrial society into something sustainable. So how do you train someone to do something that is unknown and unknowable? Our formulation is to create a weaving. We weave together the inner and the outer, the personal with the social and the political. We weave together the theoretical with the practical, and information with experiential. We have designed the course to provide both a broadening and deepening for those who attend. To broaden people's understanding of the times we live in and the conceptual thinking that underpins transition, and to deepen people into their own dreams and experience, reflecting the profound nature of the work. We are bringing something tangible and intangible to other parts of the world, and most obviously we are bringing hope. I guess the message you are not alone is what we bring, along with the ideas, thoughts, and practice of all those who are embarking on this path of hope and inspiration. We are all inspiring each other, and certainly I am inspired by all that I see happening, all that participants bring with them on the many trainings we have facilitated. Some of the feedback we have received from the training is of the richness of the meetings that happen with other participants -- for many a relief from the sense of isolation they reside in during their regular jobs, with family or friends who don't share their worldview. I was talking to a journalist from the Times this morning who commented on how Transition Towns created hope in people who feel the futility of doing things on their own. We think of our tour as acting like the bumblebees in Open Space -- bringing ideas from one place and learning as they go, cross-fertilising evolving projects and discussions. Our intention is to bring the combined wisdom and practice of the Transition field to other parts of the world, and carry with us the ideas and wisdom of those who we are meeting and training. It feels an immensely satisfying and privileged role in these extraordinary times. Sophy Banks and Naresh Giangrande You can see their full schedule here.
‘Apocalypse Now? We Can Handle It’… from today’s Times 2: Climate change is upon us and the oil is running out. Is mankind’s darkest hour really approaching? If so, a growing army of local heroes is determined to turn it into our finest Luke Leitch (original article here). In Sandpoint, Idaho - birthplace of Sarah Palin, who really wouldn’t approve - residents have prepared the community garden for its first winter and plans are under way for a local biomass-fired power plant. In Bell, a district of Geelong, Victoria, Australia, they are making wood-fired pizza ovens in each other’s gardens and have negotiated bulk-buy discounts on solar power equipment for local residents. They have also planted more than 150 trees in a push to become the "fruit and nut tree area of Geelong". Viewed in isolation, these well-intentioned community efforts are laudable, yet insignificant. But Sandpoint and Bell are two examples of something much bigger - the Transition Initiative, a movement barely two years old that claims to have the answer to sustainable living in a world without oil. In some 700 towns, villages and cities worldwide, Transition is under way, and more communities are signing up every day. Most of the groups are "mulling" - Transition-speak for gearing themselves up - but 114 have launched publically, or "unleashed". Of those, 83 are in the UK, as are a further 486 "mullers". One, Lewes in East Sussex, has just launched its own currency, the Lewes pound, in an effort to encourage townsfolk to reject Tesco and spend their money at purely local shops. All the 8,500 £1 notes - bearing a handsome picture of Lewes castle on the back - were snapped up in 24 hours. The project was only slightly undermined when notes were put up for sale on eBay by currency speculators. At the unleashing in Brixton, South London, last month, the Transition Initiative drew about 300 people to Lambeth Town Hall. Fuelled by organic vegan stew (made from Brixton-grown ingredients), reflective jackets tucked safely into their bicycle helmets, they settled down to listen. "This is a historic moment," said the co-ordinator, Ben Brangwyn, from the stage: "Perhaps in a few years people will ask each other 'were you there?’" A few seats down from me, a woman gently ululated her accord. Even Ambridge, as listeners to The Archers will know, has toyed with Transition. Now, say its supporters, is the time to start thinking about it yourself, because it could make your future much more comfortable. "In all respects - every waking hour - this has completely taken over my life," says Rob Hopkins, the Englishman who started all this and whose central text, The Transition Handbook (printed in Cornwall on recycled paper, some 15,000 copies sold since May) is converting so many, so quickly. Hopkins was a lecturer at a college in Kinsale, Co Cork, when he first saw The End of Suburbia, a documentary about the notion of "peak oil". Put simply, the idea is that, while the world’s supply of oil is finite, our demand for it is growing all the time, and at some as-yet-undetermined point - which some people believe has already been reached - demand will overtake supply. There won’t be enough oil to go round, so we will either have to pay a lot more for what remains, or learn to get along without it. As Hopkins says in his handbook: "Climate change says we should change, whereas peak oil says we will be forced to change." Since it was first drilled by Edwin Deakin 159 years ago in Pennsylvania, oil has revolutionised our lives. Your toothbrush is made of oil, your car and easyJet flights run on it, and it is thanks to oil that cheap food from Britain and the rest of the world is delivered from farm and factory to your nearest supermarket. Without oil, Hopkins realised, Kinsale would have to become a very different place. So, helped by his students, he worked out something called an Energy Descent Plan: a series of measures that the town could implement to anticipate declining oil supplies. Then the town council had a eureka moment and adopted them as policy. The key to whether your town survives or thrives after peak oil, Hopkins maintains, is what Transitioners term "resilience", defined as "its ability to function indefinitely and to live within its limits, and able to thrive for having done so". To become resilient, a village, town or city needs to be able to depend on its own resources to as great an extent as possible: the more food, power, and other necessities you can produce in your area, the less you rely on imports. Hopkins defines the essence of Transition as the idea that "the future with less oil could be preferable to the present - but only if sufficient creativity and imagination are applied early enough in the design of this transition". He is determinedly upbeat in the face of Armageddon, and scathing about those who are not. "The environmental movement has been enormously naive for 40 years in assuming that the way you make people change is to give them depressing, distressing information," he says. "Take that approach and all it does is to breed apathy, or it feeds a sense of powerlessness. At this time in history the last thing you need is people feeling powerless." Hopkins moved to Devon and, in September 2006, started Transition Town Totnes - the world’s first Transition Initiative. Since then, the Totnes Transition trainers, Naresh Giangrande and Sophy Banks, have given their three-day course to more than 400 people - sometimes in Totnes but more often in the towns where their willing pupils live. This month Giangrande is off on a four-month US tour to train still more people. "We couldn’t possibly train everyone who wants to be trained," he says, "so we are starting to train other trainers." For all its global reach, the Transition movement has only modest enough premises: a rickety set of rooms above an optician’s shop. Despite its reputation, Totnes is not populated entirely by middle-class hippies. Yes, there are plenty of crystal outlets (credit crunch deal: half-price amethysts) and a notable smattering of ponchos, dreadlocks, VW camper vans and the rest. This being Devon, there are also plenty of elderly inhabitants in beige, tearooms laden with moist cake and, when night falls, teenagers boom up and down the high street in sportswear and souped-up hatchbacks. Lou Brown of Transition Town Totnes reckons that there are about 200 people there "really quite involved", while the group’s events attract many more. "There’s bound to be some people here who’ve never heard of us, though," he says. "Environmental groups rarely get to everybody." Certainly the town is full of traffic. Hopkins, 38, mentions a recent pilgrim who turned up, unannounced, from Germany: "He said that he’d come all the way to Totnes expecting to find an eco-Shangri-La and was horrified that we still had cars." Yet if reliance on the internal combustion engine persists in Totnes for now, Transition is slowly changing things. Early successes include a garden-share scheme - those with gardens but who don’t tend them are partnered with people who are garden-less but want to grow food, and both parties share the proceeds. The Totnes Food Guide is a comprehensive directory of food producers within five miles of the town: buy groceries from them and you are using minimal oil. A scheme with an epic sobriquet, The Great Re-Skilling will teach you how to make your own paint, knit with recycled materials, master clay plastering and build straw bales. And a drive to plant walnut trees - which apparently yield 7 to 11 tonnes of carbohydrate per hectare - around the town has gone well, even though the first saplings were vandalised ("the mistake was to plant them near where teenagers hang around and get drunk," says Hopkins). Transition’s widest-known wheeze, local currency, came about when Hopkins saw an old Totnes pound framed on somebody’s wall: "I thought, what would happen if we printed 300 of these? The idea is that if you shop in mainstream shops with mainstream money, when those shops close at the end of each day 80 per cent of your money - according to the New Economic Foundation - leaves your town. If you shop at local businesses, that proportion is reversed: 80 per cent stays in the local economy and only 20 per cent goes. A currency that cannot physically leave is a powerful tool to make that happen." Ten thousand Totnes pounds are in circulation and some 70 businesses, from Roly’s Fudge Pantry to Stoned Jewellers, display the sticker signifying that they accept it. Lewes emulated it, and there are plans under way for the "Brixton brick". These initial schemes to raise the resilience of Totnes are comparatively easy to achieve. Others, such as car-sharing schemes, will take longer: "If you want to set up a locally owned and managed energy company which hooks up to wind turbines on the edge of town, well, by the time you get funding, planning permission and set up the company, that’s seven years, probably," says Hopkins. The Transition Initiative sometimes appears like a well-intentioned, 21st-century version of The Good Life. As yet there is more talk than action - most of the groups in various countries that I contacted were still firmly at the planning stage. Slowly, though, people with more power are taking note. South Somerset District Council has come out in support of the movement, declaring its intention to become the world’s first "Transition district". This month a government climate-change fund in Scotland granted £184, 000 to a Transition group in Moray - and, surprisingly, The Transition Handbook popped up in joint fifth place, along with Barack Obama’s autobiography, the new Robert Harris and John Prescott’s My Story: Pulling No Punches, in a Waterstone’s survey of MPs’ summer holiday reads. The concept of peak oil, like that of climate change, was widely pooh-poohed at first but is slowly gaining credence. Last week the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimated that to compensate for the depletion of existing oilfields and meet a projected rise in world demand from 85 million barrels a day in 2008 to 106 million in 2030, the world will have to find new production equal to the output of ten Saudi Arabias. Nobuo Tanaka, executive director of the IEA, said: "Current trends in energy supply and consumption are patently unsustainable environmentally, economically and socially. They can and must be altered." Which reads like a line from The Transition Handbook. Between 1939 and 1944, food imports to Britain halved - and the nation responded, nearly doubling domestic food production. Peak oil does not concentrate the popular imagination in quite the same way as Hitler did, but at least the Transitioners will be prepared when, as they predict, an energy crisis occurs. In Hervey Bay, Queensland, Australia, people started readying themselves in June. Their two-year low-carbon diet is under way, they have met state Anna Bligh, the state premier, and are consulting on a Queensland Government report entitled Towards Oil Resilience. Bush tucker trees are to be planted around the city. Maggie Johns, a Hervey Bay Transitioner, signed off her e-mail to me thus: "Before, it all seemed so futile. What was the good in changing a few light bulbs? There are ice-shelves breaking off, for goodness sake! But when you know that more and more towns are coming online with Transition, and each has an army of dedicated volunteers, it seems much more do-able."
Update on the Transition Cities conference: Preparations for the upcoming Transition Cities conference in Nottingham are coming on very well. The outline of the event is becoming clearer, and it promises to be essential stuff for anyone involved in urban Transition work. As with other Transition events, the term ‘conference’ is something of a misnomer, as it will only include about 10 minutes of anyone actually standing up to address everyone. The day and a half event will be a mix of Open Space, which maximises the possibility of self organisation and allows you to bring your questions and interests, and a great selection of workshops. The workshops organised thus far include the following topics, diversity and inclusion, working with your local Council, constellations, the Sustainable Communities Act, managing conflict, Energy Descent Planning, Food in Transition Cities and Cities as Sanctuary. There will also be a great social evening on the Thursday night, and altogether it promises to be an extremely useful and very energising couple of days. Our aim, by the end of Day 2, is to create a Blueprint for Urban Transition, a drawing together of all the insights brought to the event. You can read everything you could ever possibly want to know about the event here, and probably a great deal more besides. At present there are 80 bookings, and the capacity is just 150, so if you are planning to come and haven’t yet booked, it would be great for us organising the event if you could send in your booking sooner rather than later. You can book quickly and easily here. See you there! Although we will struggle, I think, to find somewhere for a good game of football, in all other aspects it promises to be another highly productive and fascinating Transition event!
The Great Betrayal: why global recession means we can abandon Tibet: One of the most appalling betrayals in recent history slipped by unseen by most people in last week’s media. The UK Government stated that Tibet has actually always been a part of China, and that it has no claim whatsoever to be viewed in anyway differently from the rest of China. For the Tibetan people, who have suffered genocide, the suppression and erosion of their cultural and religious identity, huge population transfer, famine and police brutality, this is the final kick in the teeth, the final glimmer of hope snuffed out. The fact that that the Olympics are over, and China can stop pretending again that it gives a toss what the rest of the world thinks about anything, coupled with Western governments’ decision that the way out of crippling recession is to spend, spend, spend in order to encourage us to spend, spend, spend, means that no-one needs Tibet. It is dispensible and can now officially crawl away and die slowly. This is a disgusting betrayal. A short history lesson. The histories of Tibet and China have long been intertwined, sometimes parts of Tibet were part of China, and sometimes vice-versa. Tibet lead a very isolationist existence for hundreds of years, it wanted little to do with the rest of the world, and didn’t sign the kinds of treaties and accords that would identify its sovereignty in international law, yet its culture, language, traditions, dress, music, architecture, religion and politics were always entirely distinct from that of China. In 1950, China invaded Tibet. Between then and 1959 it tightened its grip on the country, especially on the East of the country, what was called Amdo province, but which the Chinese rapidly absorbed into China, calling it Quinhai province. By 1959, the tensions in Tibet had reached breaking point, and an uprising broke out in the capital, Lhasa. In the resultant confusion, the Dalai Lama fled to India, and between 10 and 15,000 Tibetans were slaughtered in Lhasa in a period of just 3 days. In Central Tibet, between March 1959 and October 1960, 87,000 Tibetans were killed by Chinese forces tightening their grip on the country. During the 1960s, agricultural reforms that dictated that China needed plants that struggled to grow in China led to widespread famine across Tibet. The Cultural Revolution led not just to increased carnage in terms of the many thousands of Tibetans exterminated in ’struggle sessions’ and in prison camps, but also the most appalling cultural carnage. Before the Chinese invasion, Tibet was home to over 6,000 monasteries, an extraordinary treasury of ancient Buddhist artifacts, manuscripts and ancient buildings. By the end of the Cultural Revolution, during which young radicalised Maoists tried to eradicate all traces of the past, only 13 were left. The huge monastic cities of Sera, Drepung and Ganden were shelled with cannons for weeks until all that remained were stumps in the landscape. Tibetans were forced to use holy scriptures as toilet paper, to murder their teachers, and to actively desecrate religious icons, melting down any valuable ones and sending the bullion to China. Prison camps in the north of Tibet were set up, hundreds of miles from anywhere in the vast desert regions, home to over 10,000 prisoners, forced to work in borax mines in dreadful conditions. The Panchen Lama (second only to the Dalai Lama), speaking in Beijing in the late 1980s, said that “in Amdo and Kham, people were subjected to unspeakable atrocities. People were shot in groups of ten or twenty… Such actions have left deep wounds in the minds of the people”. All of this was inflicted on the Tibetan people in the name of ‘liberation’ and ‘democratic reform’. Estimates vary, but it is thought that at least 1.2 million Tibetans have perished since 1950, one of the worst cases of genocide since World War Two. Until the mid-80s, Tibet was closed to the world, with reports emerging only from those brave enough to make the journey across the mountains to India. Then in September 1987, the city of Lhasa saw major demonstrations, hundreds of monks protesting at the treatment of their people. This and subsequent demonstrations were ruthlessly suppressed, with the head of security for the Tibetan region, who visited shortly afterwards, praising the ‘merciless repression’. While we in the UK are rightly indignant at the idea of 42 day detention without charge, in Tibet people can be detained for such charges as speaking with foreigners, singing patriotic songs, putting up posters, or having images or recordings of the Dalai Lama, or even speaking favourably of him. It can be months after being detained that one is even formally arrested, and often it is down to relatives of those detained to track their loved ones down. The Chinese have also embarked on a vast programme of population transfer in order to break the back of the Tibetan identity. The city of Lhasa has been all but completely rebuilt. Aside from the key tourist sites like the Potala Palace and the Jokhang temple, most of the Tibetan housing has been replaced by Chinese housing. Tibet operates like an aparthied state. Most good jobs go to Chinese, and most businesses are owned by them. When I went to Tibet in 1991, in a town just half an hour north of Lhasa, I only saw one example of Tibetan writing, and all the shops were owned by Chinese people. It was a deeply saddening experience. The attitude of the world towards Tibet has depended largely on what it felt it could get out of China at any given time. Initially the CIA funded a small Tibetan guerilla group, but that ceased when the US started making overtures towards China during the Nixon era. China was a vast potential market for Coca-Cola, and has rapidly become the world’s great sweatshop, the source of most of what is for sale in the West’s shops, as we in turn have closed down most of our own manufacturing. The Dalai Lama has for 50 years led an increasingly lonely mission to try and get Western governments to recognise the rights of the Tibetan people. Quite early on he relinquished the idea of Tibetan independence, speaking of Tibet being given greater autonomy, but within China. The Chinese have refused to budge on anything, and as China’s economic might has grown, Western governments have become increasingly obsequious and fawning to Chinese interests. The tolerance of the behaviour of the ‘guardians’ of the Olympic torch in London recently was one indicator of this, as was Gordon Brown’s refusal to meet the Dalai Lama on his recent visit to the UK, but the recent statement finally recognising Beijing’s direct rule over Tibet is an utter disgrace. Take a look at Zhu Weiqun telling the BBC that the UK has merely finally seen sense and fallen “in line with the universal position in today’s world”. Tibetans, he said, are China’s ‘brothers and sisters’. This is patently nonsense, the following film offering but one insight into why. When I went to Nottingham earlier this year to see the Dalai Lama, there was a pro-Chinese protest outside, an extraordinary sight, of young Chinese students clearly with no grounding in the history of the Tibet/China issue, protesting that the Dalai Lama wants to ’split the Motherland’. As the energy peak-underpinned recession deepens and continues to bite, Gordon Brown’s pitch to the G20 meeting was the need to increase borrowing and cut interest rates in order to stimulate economic growth. This is akin to offering fresh carrots and a thorough whipping to a horse that just died from exhaustion. China is of course key to this. If the world is to spend its way back to economic health it needs the Chinese. It needs their cheap trainers and toothbrushes, their un-unionised factories and low wages. It also needs their money, the vast amount of currency they have stashed away after the recent years of growth. Finally, it needs their energy, given the phenomenal rate at which they have been buying up energy resources around the world in recent years. In short, when you are utterly dependent on someone, you find it both easy and convenient to overlook their obvious flaws. It is easy to see why the Dalai Lama recently spoke of ‘losing hope;’ for the future of Tibet. The world needs China. It doesn’t need Tibet. If the world is to pursue a path of continuing to believe that economic growth and economic globalisation have a future in spite of all the evidence to the contrary, then we merely deepen our reliance on and our need to turn a blind eye to the atrocities perpetuated by those on whom we become increasingly dependent. A world in which countries and economies were more resilient, less dependent on international trade and less dependent on imported energy, more self-reliant and more resourceful, would be one in which one could actually have an ‘ethical foreign policy’. At present, to speak of such a thing is laughable. In Gordon Brown’s growth-fixated worldview, having China on board is essential. Tibet is, once again, paying the price for not having oil, for not having asserted its independence in the 1940s, and for having been invaded by one of the world superpowers. Now it has been officially decided that the Tibetan people can sod off, that the world will do nothing about the ongoing eradication of their culture, that they have no-one to turn to as China continues to import hundreds of thousands of Chinese into Tibet and to brutally suppress any opposition. When people suggest that building resilience and becoming less dependent on economic globalisation somehow sentences the developing world to poverty, Tibet is just one of many examples of places for whom the demise of our addiction to China means that finally, the world may actually find its voice in terms of speaking out on the ruthless and relentless eradication of one of the world’s great cultures.

Oil Depletion Protocol

ASPO's Stuart McCarthy on the ODP in QLD: Stuart McCarthy of ASPO Brisbane discusses the recent response to a petition for the state of Queensland to adopt the Oil Depletion Protocol and other Australian peak oil news. Read more.
The Oil Depletion Protocol in Earth Island Journal: Richard Heinberg discusses the Oil Depletion Protocol in the Winter 2007 edition of Earth Island Journal. Click here to read more.
Bush urged to break US oil dependence: By Carola Hoyos in London, Edward Luce in Washington and Krishna Guha in Beijing Published: December 13 2006 22:07 | Last updated: December 13 2006 22:07 The Bush administration should act decisively to break America's dependence on oil, said a group of leading US business executives and senior military officers in a report presented on Wednesday to the White House and Congress. The bipartisan group, which includes the chief executives of Fedex, UPS, Dow Chemicals and some of America's best known retired generals, urged Washington to recognise that "pure market economics will never solve the problem" of US oil dependency. The report poured cold water on the Bush administration's goal of reducing America's dependence on foreign oil, rather than on oil in general. It urged Mr Bush and the new Democrat-controlled Congress to set up a plan to halve the American economy's oil-intensity by 2030. George W. Bush has repeatedly identified "energy independence" and immigration reform as two of the issues most likely to attract bipartisan support following the Republican loss of control of Capitol Hill in mid-term elections last month. "Events affecting supply or demand anywhere will affect consumers everywhere," said the report, brought out by the Energy Security Leadership Council, a think tank. "Exposure to price shocks is a function of how much oil a nation consumes and is not significantly affected by the ratio of "domestic oil" to so-called "foreign oil". The report also warned Mr Bush, who is expected to announce new energy independence measures in his annual State of the Union address to Congress next month, that America's oil dependence makes it acutely vulnerable to terrorist attacks. America's transport system is 97 per cent dependent on oil. More than 90 per cent of world oil supply is controlled by foreign governments. "America must address this critical weakness." Said P.X. Kelley, a retired Marine Corps general. "An oil supply interruption cannot be reasonably dismissed as improbable." However, there is deep-seated scepticism about the willingness of the Bush administration, which has yet to endorse the theory of global warming, to take the tough steps most energy experts say are necessary to reduce America's dependence on oil. Last January Mr Bush declared that America was "addicted to oil". But Mr Bush's announcement was not followed by any significant change in energy strategy. "There is very little reason to believe that the White House will take the tough measures necessary to make this happen," said a Washington-based energy lobbyist. "There is no appetite, say, to impose a carbon tax or for putting a floor under the price of oil that would incentivise investors to put their money into alternative energy." However, the US administration wants to step up co-operation with China on energy efficiency and the use of alternative fuels. Energy and the environment will be among the topics addressed in Friday's final session of the US-China strategic economic dialogue involving top officials meeting in Beijing. The dialogue is the brainchild of Hank Paulson, US Treasury Secretary, who has a strong track record as an environmentalist and is treated with suspicion by some US conservatives as a result. Lack of binding targets for China and other big emerging market countries such as India to limit their greenhouse gas emissions was one of America's principal reasons for refusing to ratify the Kyoto accord. Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2006 See article here.
EU report calls for energy efficiency to be a priority: The Industry and Energy Committee says there should be binding targets for reducing carbon dioxide emissions and on increasing the use of renewable energy sources. These views are set out in a wide ranging report on the Commission's energy strategy proposals, adopted unopposed on Thursday. In its report, drawn up by Eluned Morgan (PES, UK), the committee welcomes the Commission's green paper on a European strategy for sustainable, competitive and secure energy, but stresses that changing conditions in the broader global energy market need to be taken into account. MEPs in the committee want a systematic approach considering production, distribution and consumption in order to develop a policy which secures affordable energy. A binding CO2 target for 2020 and changes in Emissions Trading Scheme To tackle climate change, MEPs say EU leaders should agree within the next year on a binding CO2 target for 2020 and an indicative one for 2050. They say the existing Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) needs to be changed, to include a move towards auctioning or benchmarking based on output - and also to bring in further emitting sectors including all types of freight transport. Energy Efficiency to be a priority across the board The report asks the Council and Commission to make the EU the most energy efficient economy in the world by 2020 and to set energy efficiency measures as cross-cutting priority for all EU policy areas. It supports an EU target for energy efficiency improvements of at least 20 per cent by 2020. MEPs call for an EU strategy on transport energy use, aiming at the phasing out of fossil fuel, a reduction in oil dependency and the gradual introduction of clean energy. Targets for renewables supported - nuclear power is up to Member States In order to help diversify energy sources, the committee says the EU needs a stable long-term policy framework, with binding sectoral targets for renewables to reach 25 per cent in primary energy by 2020 - and a route map to reach 50 per cent by 2040. The committee recognises the role that nuclear energy plays in some Member States as part of the energy mix and as a way of avoiding CO2 emissions, but says decisions on the future of nuclear power must be taken by the Member States individually. Consumers at the centre of energy policies MEPs in the committee stress that consumers must be placed at the centre of all future energy policies and that energy poverty should feature more clearly in the Commission's proposals. Consumers should have easy access to price and choice information, to an easy method of switching energy provider and a right to be heard by the regulators in each Member State. EU should speak with one voice with third countries The committee says a common stance vis-à-vis third countries is needed to increase the EU's ability to negotiate with energy producing and consuming countries. The Commissioner responsible for energy should, say MEPs, work to a well defined mandate with a long-term energy planning vision. MEPs urge the Commission and the Member States to take very seriously the real danger of a deficit in gas supplies from Russia after 2010. They insist on the ratification of the Transit Protocol and the Energy Charter Treaty, which are instrumental in ensuring much needed foreign investment in Russia's energy infrastructure and to assure sufficient gas supply to the EU. 23/11/2006Committee on Industry, Research and EnergyChair : Giles Chichester (EPP-ED, UK) Procedure: Own Initiative ReportPlenary vote: December, Strasbourg Original story here.
Queensland, Australia petition to adopt the ODP: If you are a resident of Queensland, Australia, click here to read about and sign the petition to Parliament!

Postcarbon Cities

SLC mayor wants green rules in black and white: Salt Lake City has long walked its environmental talk. But to be a truly green city, Mayor Ralph Becker's team is using its black pen to cut the red tape. Marking the first major overhaul since the mid-90s, capital planners are rewriting the city's code book to help ensure sustainability for generations to come.
Benefit plans allow riders to pay with pre-tax dollars: Under federal tax law, a commuter can shelter up to $115 a month, or $1,380 a year, in pre-tax dollars to help pay commuting expenses. But few employers provide programs that would allow their employees to take advantage of this. San Francisco recently became the nation's first to require businesses with more than 20 employees to offer transit benefit programs -- and Chicago may soon follow.
Health Line is a strong RX for Cleveland's once and future Main Street: Cleveland's new bus rapid transit project, the Health Line, is already a great boon to the city and represents a model of wise infrastructure investment.
San Antonio's ongoing light rail discussion framed by energy: The San Antonio Express-News presents a series of posts on energy and transportation relating to a proposed light rail system -- contrasting San Antonio's development and transportation patterns with those of Portland, Ore. San Antonio formed a transportation task force in June 2008 to ensure mobility in the face of rising energy costs.
Decentralized urban farming - CSA in the city: A business in San Francisco turns backyards into a "decentralized urban farm" -- a more productive use of land that can boost food production and bring neighbors together.

Peak Oil Anarchy

Peak Oil Anarchy: Worldwide Protests Slam G8 Support of Nuclear ...: Peak Oil is indisputable, inevitable and -- probably -- imminent. As the Cheap Oil era ends & oil supplies grow ever more scarce, our consumerist, earth-eating economy will go into convulsions & industrial civilization will teeter on ...

Mis nuevos links sobre el Cénit

Decrecimiento: Decrecimiento y cambio social: Presentación de Ernest García sobre a necesidade do decrecemento
Sostenibilidad sin "desarrollo" SOS temible: Cómo abordar el problema desde la escuela
fernando.ballenilla Materiales didácticos sobre el zenit de producción petrolífera: Material didáctico y otros documentos para prevenir el temporal que se nos avecina
Contador de consumo energético
La crisi econòmica ajornarà el pic del petroli, però no l'evitarà: El crack financer pot dificultar encara més la capacitat de resposta. La contracció econòmica reduirà la demanda d'energia, retardant el pic uns quants anys, probablement cap a l'any 2015.

Ecologistas en Acción

Por el cierre de Garoña: Ecologistas en Acción saluda la acción de Greenpeace en contra de la central nuclear de Garoña (Burgos) e insiste en pedir el cierre de esta central por las malas condiciones de seguridad en que se encuentra. - Garoña
Piden reducir un 80% el gasto del alumbrado navideño: Ecologistas en Acción de Las Palmas ha solicitado formalmente al Ayuntamiento de Las Palmas que reduzca, como mínimo en un 80%, el gasto energético y económico producido por el alumbrado navideño. - Las Palmas de GC
La Consejería de Medio Ambiente perjudica la protección de fringílidos: La Consejería no conforme con esto, también está frenando las acciones de conservación que se están dando desde algunas administraciones. - Adra
Rechazo al Rally en la Sierra Norte: Con motivo de la celebración del Shalymar asociaciones vecinales y ecologistas expresan su rechazo a este tipo de pruebas por el impacto ambiental y social que conllevan. - Comunidad de Madrid
Depuración de responsabilidades ante incendio provocado por limpieza del monte: Ecologistas en Acción de Mijas insta a la Junta de Andalucía que se depuren responsabilidades ante el nuevo incendio provocado por la limpieza de la sierra que tuvo lugar ayer en la zona cercana al Higuerón y calcinó 0,4 hectáreas de monte. - Mijas

España, Galicia, Euskadi

Diagonal

Trasnacionales, España y EE UU presionan para privatizar el petróleo mexicano: La iniciativa de reforma del presidente Calderón para privatizar la empresa paraestatal Pemex ha generado serios debates sobre su gestión y el futuro del petróleo en México. MEXICO DF. Manifestación contra la privatización de Pemex el 14 de abril de 2008. Al cierre de esta edición, más de tres millones de mexicanos y mexicanas habían participado en la consulta popular sobre la reforma petrolera propuesta al Congreso en abril pasado por el Gobierno del presidente Felipe Calderón, del conservador Partido de Acción Nacional (PAN). A pesar de la gran campaña política y mediática de la derecha contra esta consulta ciudadana, en casi todos los Estados de la república se pudo expresar el rechazo a la privatización de Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex), que “no es otra cosa que un burdo intento de justificar la entrega del patrimonio nacional petrolero a la iniciativa privada, principalmente extranjera”, en palabras del analista Gustavo Iruegas. La excusa de Calderón y su Gobierno para la propuesta de reforma es la obsolescencia de los recursos de esta empresa paraestatal, la poca modernización y la necesidad de grandes inversiones, por ejemplo, para refinar gasolina, que ahora es importada casi en su totalidad para abastecer al país. El Partido de la Revolución Institucional (PRI) se ha sumado recientemente a esta idea de reformas, que violaría la Constitución mexicana. “Pemex es patrimonio del pueblo mexicano, no del Gobierno en turno”, alzan la voz desde todo el arco de la izquierda. Y como se ha ido viendo en los distintos foros y debates abiertos desde abril, los últimos gobiernos han sido los que han ido dejando en este estado crítico a la empresa, exprimiendo con impuestos casi el 90% de sus ganancias y obviando las malas prácticas y la corrupción, siendo significativo que Calderón fuera secretario (ministro) de Energía con Vicente Fox. Según el catedrático Jiménez Espriu, que expuso su postura en el debate nacional en el Senado, para la sociedad es obvio “que Pemex está técnicamente quebrada a propósito”. Así, gran parte de la sociedad civil y el entorno de Andrés Manuel López Obrador, ex candidato presidencial por el socialdemócrata Partido de la Revolución Democrática (PRD) y líder del Frente Amplio Progresista (FAP), además de propiciar la consulta popular, están decididos a evitar esta entrega de Pemex “por medio de la resistencia civil pacífica”. Ya lo hicieron los diputados al tomar las tribunas del Congreso en abril para evitar la aprobación de la reforma sin ningún debate. Aunque algunas corrientes del PRD sí están dispuestas a pactar con la derecha en las instituciones, los grupos más a la izquierda han expresado que sí es necesaria una reforma petrolera y energética, pero para fortalecer a Pemex, dedicando más recursos y modernización, mejor gestión y control, no para privatizarla y que ganen siempre los mismos y pierda la sociedad. Pemex, que es la empresa más importante de México (aporta el 40% del presupuesto del Estado), es codiciada por empresas como Repsol, Exxon o Bristish Petroleum, que presionan para que se privatice. El Gobierno español de Zapatero ha expresado varias veces su apoyo a Calderón en su iniciativa privatizadora y también Estados Unidos está intentando meter baza, ya que necesita suministradores fieles de crudo, por la inestabilidad de Oriente Medio y la oposición de Venezuela. Otros debates Pero el debate suscitado por la reforma energética también ha sacado a colación otros temas relevantes, como pueden ser la transformación radical del sindicato de trabajadores del petróleo, que es ejemplo probado de corruptelas (su líder lleva 17 años en el cargo); o ha salido a relucir la exención de impuestos a grandes empresas como Cemex, Coca- Cola, Bimbo, Wal-Mart o Telmex, entre otras corporaciones que apoyaron la campaña electoral del PAN, mientras Pemex paga millones. También se ha puesto tímidamente sobre la mesa que la era del petróleo fácil y barato llegó a su fin. La revista Proceso, en un artículo titulado Contra el petróleo, exponía esa postura que cada vez va teniendo más eco en la sociedad: “Habría que preguntarse si es buena una política económica basada en la energía fósil”, para después añadir: “No podemos, en nombre de las desmesuras del consumo moderno que produce el petróleo, contribuir a la dilapidación del capital ecológico y cultural, cuyas consecuencias pagarán con creces el planeta y las futuras generaciones”. De ahí que surjan voces que pidan potenciar las energías alternativas no contaminantes, el transporte colectivo, etc. Además, el problema de Pemex saca a relucir injusticias: apostar por el petróleo, además de agravar la destrucción del planeta, significa el despojo de tierras y represión contra voces disidentes en esos territorios, en pos de encontrar más yacimientos que explotar, como se expuso debatiendo la cuestión en la asamblea de la sociedad civil de abajo y a la izquierda de San Cristóbal de Las Casas, La Otra Jovel. Significado de Pemex Petróleos Mexicanos obtuvo en 2006 ingresos superiores a 198 mil millones de dólares, siendo la mayor empresa de Latinoamérica. Fue fundada en 1938, cuando el presidente Lázaro Cárdenas nacionalizó las empresas de hidrocarburos que operaban en el país, todas estadounidenses, tras un año de fuertes movilizaciones obreras por mejores condiciones laborales. Desde entonces es fundamental para la economía del país, además de símbolo de independencia del pueblo mexicano.
Grupos trans en lucha: las hormonas del disenso: La Ley de Identidad de Género, que tiene poco más de un año de vida, sigue generando polémica. Colectivos LGTB mantienen una agria polémica en torno al requisito de dos años de hormonación. IDENTIDAD. Los grupos queer reclaman una idea diferente de la identidad de género. En 2006, durante la tramitación de la Ley de Identidad de Género, numerosos colectivos trans y de liberación sexual criticaron al PSOE por incluir en ésta el requisito del certificado de disforia de género –la transexualidad debe ser diagnosticada como una patología –, y por establecer un periodo de dos años de hormonación para poder cambiar el nombre y el sexo recogido en el DNI. Con motivo de la pasada campaña electoral, el PNV se reunió con los colectivos de lesbianas, gays, bisexuales y transexuales (LGTB) de Euskadi con el fin de escuchar sus demandas, una de las cuales es la retirada de la hormonación como requisito, puesto que, entre otras cosas, conlleva en la mayoría de los casos la esterilidad. Fruto de estas reuniones, el pasado septiembre, el PNV anunció la presentación de una proposición no de ley en el Parlamento español que se hacía eco de esta demanda para reformar la Ley de Identidad. Finalmente, la propuesta fue retirada y sustituida por una enmienda transaccional votada por unanimidad, en la que se propone instar al Gobierno “a abordar un estudio” sobre la supresión de ese requisito. Hasta aquí todo parecía ser una nueva “parada técnica” del Parlamento. Sin embargo algunos días después, varios colectivos vascos, como EHGAM, Aldarte y Hegoak, hicieron pública una carta en la que acusaban a la FELGTB, Federación Estatal de organizaciones LGTB, muy ligada al PSOE, de “partidista, cobarde y contradictoria respecto a los intereses de colectivos que dice defender”, por haber presionado al PNV para que retirase la propuesta aduciendo “falta de consenso entre los grupos trans”. Las reacciones no se hicieron esperar y la FELGTB insistió en que, tanto ella como los grupos que la integran “apoyan” la propuesta del PNV. Declaración que quedó en entredicho en cuanto uno de estos grupos, la Asociación de Transexuales de Andalucía (ATA), propuso mantener un requisito de un año de hormonación, así como una ley separada para las personas queer diferente a la de los transexuales. En el origen de la confrontación están dos visiones políticas contrapuestas a la hora de interpretar el sexo. Mientras una, la ‘normativista', sostiene que los órganos sexuales definen la identidad de género y por lo tanto esta identidad necesita de tratamientos como la hormonación; la segunda, que bebe de la teoría queer, no liga sexo e identidad de género sino que remite al ámbito de lo psicosocial, por lo que denuncia que los modelos naturalizados de “hombre y mujer” esconden opresiones sexistas. Desde esta perspectiva, varios grupos como EHGAM (Euskal Herria), Maribolheras Precarias (Galicia), Acera del Frente (Madrid) o Stonewall-Aragón, responden en un texto colectivo a las tesis ‘normativistas' con argumentos a favor de la despatologización de la transexualidad, la no imposición de los tratamientos hormonales y califican las normas de género como “dictaduras sociales”. En esa línea, la apelación al consenso realizada por la FELGTB es definida como “la nueva forma de disfrazar una imposición” por militantes queer madrileñas, que explican que “ninguna persona trans que quiere hormonarse ve vulnerados sus derechos porque otras personas trans no estén obligadas a hacerlo, esto no es consenso, es una imposición reaccionaria y sexista”.
Pimientos rojos rellenos de cebada: INGREDIENTES: 6 pimientos rojos 2 tazas de cebada cocida ¼ taza de perejil picado 1 cebolla , picada 2 tallos de apio, picados 1 cucharada de semillas de hinojo 1 Cda de hierbas 16 oz de salchichas vegetales (compradas o caseras) o 2 latas de color de frijoles o garbanzos 3 Cdas de aceite de oliva sal y pimienta al gusto PREPARACIÓN: Precalentar el horno. Aceitar una asadera. Cortar la parte superior del pimiento y quitar las semillas. Coloque los pimientos en la asadera, rociar con aceite de oliva y hornear durante 15 minutos para suavizarlos. Una vez hecho esto, reservarlos. Calentar 1 Cda de aceite de oliva en un sartén grande. Saltear las partes superiores de los pimientos (que se cortaron al principio), apio, cebolla y semillas, a fuego medio hasta que estén tiernos, unos 15 minutos. A&

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Mis nuevos links sobre el Cénit

Ecologistas en Acción

España, Galicia, Euskadi

Diagonal